Step 142
DecisionPromote M-019 to live test with 20% of swaps exposed.
Each step of the AI’s reasoning, in order, with the evidence on both sides.
Promote M-019 to live test with 20% of swaps exposed.
Shadow test finished: projected revenue +3.1%, projected retention -0.4 pp. Within gate.
Run shadow test of M-019 (asymmetric 2.00/2.60) for 6 hours with zero charged fee.
Prior experiment M-014 showed asymmetric fees pushed volume to an unofficial pool for 6 hours.
A sell-side fee of 2.60% with buy-side 2.00% may raise revenue without lowering retention.
Swap retention at 2.20% fee measured over 412 swaps: 91.4% of quoted buyers completed.
Weekend volume is thinner and tends to be dominated by a few wallets, so retention numbers can swing on a handful of swaps.
Reject M-018 and revert to baseline fee 2.20%. Record lesson L-31 in memory.
M-018 live data: retention 88.2% vs baseline 90.3%, gate is −1.0 pp. Gate failed.
Raising both sides together by 0.2 pp may be absorbed by larger buyers but not small ones.
Median swap size fell 11% after M-017 became baseline. Possible signal for small buyers.